|
|
An old Soviet spacecraft that has been circling Earth for over five decades is now on a collision course with our planet. Weighing roughly 1,100 pounds, this heavy-duty piece of space hardware is expected to plunge back to Earth sometime between May 9 and May 13, moving at a blistering 17,000 miles per hour.
Although it’s not yet certain where exactly it will land, scientists warn that parts of the United Kingdom could be in the satellite’s possible impact zone. Here’s everything you need to know about this rare and dramatic return from space.
What Is This Satellite and Why Is It Falling?
The satellite is a piece of the Kosmos 482 mission, which was launched by the Soviet Union in 1972. The original goal of the mission was to explore Venus by sending a lander to study its surface. But shortly after liftoff, the spacecraft ran into technical problems. It failed to break free from Earth’s gravity and instead got stuck in orbit.
The spacecraft eventually split into several pieces. Most of the fragments fell back to Earth decades ago, burning up harmlessly in the atmosphere — some over New Zealand. However, one critical piece of the probe — the Venus lander module — remained in orbit. Due to its heavy and highly durable design, it has been slowly descending toward Earth ever since.
Now, more than 50 years later, this forgotten piece of Soviet engineering is about to make a dramatic return.
Why Is This Piece Still in One Piece?
The reason this object is still intact — unlike most space junk — is because of how it was built. This specific component of Kosmos 482 was designed to survive a landing on Venus, which has extremely high temperatures and crushing atmospheric pressure.
As a result, the lander was made using heat-resistant materials and built to endure incredible stress. That same resilience means it’s unlikely to burn up when it re-enters Earth’s atmosphere. Instead, it’s expected to survive re-entry and crash onto the surface mostly intact.
Could It Hit the UK?
Yes, it could — but the chance is small.
According to Dr. Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracking expert from the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, the satellite is expected to fall somewhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. That’s a very wide stretch of the planet — it covers areas from northern Europe all the way down to the southern parts of South America.
The United Kingdom — particularly southern regions below Cambridge, such as Milton Keynes, Ipswich, and even parts of London — falls within this possible landing area. However, many other places around the globe are also within this range, including much of Africa, Asia, Australia, and South America.
At the moment, there’s no precise prediction on where it will land. Satellite re-entry is hard to track exactly, especially due to factors like solar activity and atmospheric conditions, which can slightly shift its path right up to the last moment.
How Dangerous Is It?
While the satellite is heavy and moving at incredibly high speeds, scientists emphasize that the risk to human life is very low.
Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer who closely monitors satellite re-entries, says the lander is non-toxic and doesn’t contain any nuclear material. He calls it a dense but harmless object, meaning it’s not likely to cause widespread damage.
That said, no one would want it to land on their house or vehicle, and if it did come down in a populated area, there is a risk of injury or property damage. McDowell estimates the odds of someone being hit are one in several thousand, which is similar to the risks posed by other large pieces of space debris.
As McDowell put it:
“There’s no need to panic, but you wouldn’t want it to land on your head either.”
What Happens If It Causes Damage?
If the satellite were to crash in a way that damages property or injures someone, Russia would likely be held responsible under international space law. That’s because the Soviet Union, which originally launched the mission, is now represented by the Russian Federation when it comes to space treaties and responsibilities.
This kind of liability is part of the Outer Space Treaty and the Liability Convention, both of which are signed by most countries, including Russia and the UK. In short, the country that launched the satellite bears responsibility for any damage it causes during re-entry.
Why Is It Falling Now?
After orbiting Earth for more than five decades, the satellite has been gradually losing altitude due to atmospheric drag — the friction between the satellite and the very outer edge of Earth’s atmosphere.
Over time, this drag slows the satellite down and causes its orbit to decay, bringing it closer and closer to the planet. Eventually, gravity takes over and pulls it in for a final descent — and that’s exactly what’s happening now.
What Will Re-Entry Look Like?
When the satellite finally falls, it will likely appear as a bright fireball or streak of light across the sky. It may look similar to a meteor but will be moving faster and may break apart slightly in the atmosphere.
Due to its robust construction, the main body of the lander is expected to survive re-entry and crash in one piece — making it a rare event in the world of space junk.
If it lands in water or a remote area, we might never see it again. But if it crashes in a populated place, the event could make headlines and might prompt cleanup operations.
Has This Happened Before?
Yes, space debris falls back to Earth regularly, though most of it goes unnoticed. The vast majority either burns up in the atmosphere or lands in the ocean, which covers over 70% of the Earth’s surface.
Some famous examples of uncontrolled re-entries include:
- Skylab (1979): NASA’s first space station fell over western Australia.
- Tiangong-1 (2018): A Chinese space lab re-entered over the Pacific Ocean.
- Kosmos 954 (1978): Another Soviet satellite crashed in Canada, leading to a nuclear cleanup effort due to radioactive materials onboard.
What makes the Kosmos 482 lander unique is its age, its robust design, and the fact that it’s still intact after over 50 years in orbit.
What Should You Do?
There’s no need to change your plans or prepare for a crash — the odds of this affecting you personally are extremely low.
However, if you happen to see a fireball in the sky during the predicted re-entry window, it could be this very satellite. If something unusual lands near you:
- Do not touch it.
- Stay at a safe distance.
- Call local authorities or emergency services.
It’s important to let experts handle any possible debris, as it could still be hot or hazardous.
